Daily Kos

General Election will come down to 2 or 3 swing states

Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:11:35 PM PDT

I feel there is a misconception around here that Obama will sweep the entire nation and the "swing" states (OH, PA, and this year VA) won't matter.  The reality is they will make or break him.

I am a believer in Howard Dean's 50-State strategy to put Democrats in every office at every level, from local to national.  If we want the country to become progressive, we need Democrats in our state legislatures just as much as we need them in Congress.  Barack Obama's coattails will help with this in November because he will turn previously red states into blue.  As much as this helps downticket races however, the Presidential election will still come down to the same few swing states that it has come down to in the past.

Obama victory: General election match-up polls underestimate his strength

Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 09:21:46 AM PDT

On the surface, this vicious and protracted primary season is taking a toll on the Democrats' chances in November.  

RCP average has McCain leading Obama nationally by 1.6 points.  The latest Gallup poll has a whopping 28% of Hillary supporters flocking to McCain when Obama wins the nomination.  Polls have McCain gaining ground in a number of states on both candidates and the hardening of supporters in each Dem camp is very disconcerting to see.

However, it's not all gloom and doom and this is actually a sign that Obama will fare well in November.  All of these polls in general are underestimating Obama's strength for the following reasons:

Contact elected superdelegates who are negating their constituents' votes!

Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 03:20:47 PM PDT

Here is a list of elected officials (with contact information) who are endorsing or voting for Hillary Clinton at the Convention even though their districts/states have overwhelmingly gone for Obama.  As leema showed in her diary, there is a chance they will change their vote if enough constituents tell them they don't want their voices suppressed.  Let's show them our grassroots strength in action!

(If I've left someone out, please leave a comment and I'll edit it in)

Complete list of superdelegate endorsements can be found at Superdelegate Transparency Project and DemCon Watch.


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